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NEWS: Coastal wetlands are unable to adapt to the rate of sea-level rise and are constrained by infrastructure

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Wetlands, precious ecosystems that shield coastlines, safeguard drinking water from saltwater contamination, and nourish diverse wildlife, face a dire threat from the accelerating pace of sea-level rise, driven by global warming. Wetlands have historically adapted to rising sea levels by expanding upward and inland. However, predictions indicate that the waterline will soon shift far too rapidly for wetlands to keep pace. Consequently, future decades may witness the tragic loss of these vital wetland ecosystems. Wetlands along coastlines have historically played valuable roles for people and wildlife, but are now facing the threat of sea-level rise. As temperatures rise, sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate, and wetlands are unable to keep pace by building upward and migrating inland. This is due to human-induced climate change and the burning of fossil fuels, which has warmed the oceans and melted glaciers. Sea levels are now rising at about 10 millimeters per year, and are
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NEWS: Is the construction sector likely to help Europe's post lockdown recovery?

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In Europe the construction PMI picked up faster than manufacturing PMI in May after a deeper contraction in April.

Is an early rebound in the Construction sector likely to help the post-lockdown recovery in Europe?



Construction Sector to Play Important Part in Post-Lockdown GDP Recovery

The construction sector contributed heavily to the collapse in eurozone and UK activity in March and April and will be one of the sectors leading post-coronavirus-lockdown recoveries in the near term, according to the latest Fitch Ratings Economics Dashboard. The retail and wholesale trade sector was by far the biggest contributor to lockdown recessions in Europe and its re-opening will be a key driver of sequential improvements in GDP from May, but this pattern is broadly in line with our expectations.

"The service sector shock was largely in line with our assumptions, but the shock in the construction sector was larger than expected. With the construction sector playing a surprisingly significant role in the economic slump in March and April, an early rebound in the sector looks likely to help the post-lockdown recovery in Europe," said Marina Stefani, Director at Fitch Ratings.

While the construction sector shrank more severely than expected, it is also recovering faster than other sectors, which are not fully re-opened, as lockdown measures are being eased gradually across Europe. The construction PMI picked up faster than manufacturing PMI in May after a deeper contraction in April.

The release of quarterly and monthly production-based breakdowns of GDP offers a good picture of which sectors were most negatively affected by lockdown measures adopted in Europe and helps to confirm whether the sector assumptions underlying our top-down macroeconomic forecasts are in check.

The decline in services weighed heavily on growth in 1Q20 in Spain and Italy, where these sectors account for at least 20% of gross value added. The steepest falls in service sector activity were notably in the trade, transportation and food and accommodation services. These developments were mostly in line with our expectations of the differential impact of lockdowns on sectors. But surprisingly, the slump in construction scratched almost 1pp off growth in France and 0.5pp in Spain, although the sector accounts for less than 6% of these economies. The contraction in manufacturing was a key drag on growth in Germany and Italy in 1Q20.

In the UK, the recent release of production-based GDP data for April - a month spent fully in lockdown - provides a unique insight into the impact of lockdown on the various sectors. GDP fell 25% in April 2020, broadly in line with our earlier forecast assumptions about the impact of full national lockdowns on daily economic activity. Hospitality (hotels & restaurants) contracted by more than 90% yoy, a virtual total shutdown. Retail and wholesale trade fell 34% yoy, making the biggest negative contribution to GDP at -3.7pp. But once again, the shock to the construction sector stands out as construction plummeted by 44% yoy, and weighed more on growth (-2.7pp) than the transport, hospitality or education sectors.

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