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NEWS: Coastal wetlands are unable to adapt to the rate of sea-level rise and are constrained by infrastructure

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Wetlands, precious ecosystems that shield coastlines, safeguard drinking water from saltwater contamination, and nourish diverse wildlife, face a dire threat from the accelerating pace of sea-level rise, driven by global warming. Wetlands have historically adapted to rising sea levels by expanding upward and inland. However, predictions indicate that the waterline will soon shift far too rapidly for wetlands to keep pace. Consequently, future decades may witness the tragic loss of these vital wetland ecosystems. Wetlands along coastlines have historically played valuable roles for people and wildlife, but are now facing the threat of sea-level rise. As temperatures rise, sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate, and wetlands are unable to keep pace by building upward and migrating inland. This is due to human-induced climate change and the burning of fossil fuels, which has warmed the oceans and melted glaciers. Sea levels are now rising at about 10 millimeters per year, and are
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How has Covid-19 impacted the construction output growth of the Sub-Saharan region?

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South Africa’s construction industry is expected to contract by 5.9 per cent in 2020, the contraction is expected to persist as the industry continues to be hit hard by the impact of high national debt, labor shortages and little infrastructure spending amid a depressed economy.

How is the construction output growth for the rest of the Sub-Saharan Africa region  going to be impacted?

COVID-19 impacts economic activity, says GlobalData

The 2020 construction output growth forecast for the sub-saharan Africa (SSA) region has been revised down to 0.7 per cent from the previous pre-COVID forecast of 3.6 per cent, according to GlobalData.

Yasmine Ghozzi, economist at GlobalData, commented, “Construction growth is expected to remain slow in 2021 before regaining strength in 2022. This, in part, reflects the expectation that budget spending in 2020 and 2021 will be focused on stabilisation, with some development projects being pushed back, and health sector spending being a priority as the novel coronavirus is exerting strong pressure on a national health that is not equipped to deal with major pandemics.”

South Africa’s construction industry to contract by 5.9 per cent in 2020

COVID-19 is expected to hit the region’s largest two economies, South Africa and Nigeria, in a context of weak growth and investment. This will adversely impact their respective construction sectors. GlobalData expects South Africa’s construction industry to contract by 5.9 per cent in 2020, and this negative impact will persist as the industry continues to be hit hard by the impact of high national debt, labor shortages and little infrastructure spending amid a depressed economy.

Nigeria’s construction industry to see 2.1 per cent decline
GlobalData has further cut its growth rate for Nigeria’s construction industry to -2.1 per cent (from the previous update of 1.3 per cent) in 2020, and foresees that weak public investment alongside limited foreign direct investment (FDI) amid the global economic downturn will push Nigeria into recession. Continued deficits in energy and transport infrastructure will also hinder the economy’s medium-term recovery.

Ghozzi commented, “The overall short-term outlook for Nigeria remains subdued as the intervention of OPEC+ and top oil-producing countries through output cuts has still not impacted significantly on oil prices or stabilised the market (the oil price recorded fluctuations in April and May), and if the pandemic lingers on, the Nigerian oil sector is predicted to contract further in the remaining quarters of the year, resulting in further revenue shrinkage for the government.”

Kenya’s construction sector to contract 3.1 per cent

GlobalData has cut its growth rate for Kenya’s construction sector to 3.1 per cent for 2020, and has cut Ethiopia ’s construction growth to 7.8 per cent in 2020 (down from the Q1 2020 update of 10.9 per cent) and 8.7 per cent in 2021.

Ghozzi added, “The weaker growth outlook for Ethiopia reflects the likelihood of a decline in project financing given concerns surrounding the completion of projects, exacerbated by a sharp rise in the country’s fiscal. Capital projects such as railway and road construction will gain momentum again from 2022 once the election is over (general elections as well as regional and council elections were supposed to be held in August but are now postponed due to the pandemic with no specific date) and global economic conditions normalise.”

Ghana’s construction sector revised down to -4.3 per cent

GlobalData has revised down its forecast for Ghana’s construction sector to -4.3 per cent in 2020 and -1.8 per cent in 2021 in real terms. Given that Ghana is an import-driven economy, COVID-19 is expected to negatively impact the country’s international trade and reserves, and the economy will suffer from a slump in government’s revenues, which will affect its ability to spend on development projects. The unplanned increase in expenditure, specifically in the health sector, could result in a sharp rise in public expenditure, which will result in a fiscal deficit of 6.6 per cent of revised GDP, higher than the de facto fiscal rule of five per cent set by the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Source: AfricanReview

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