The delivery of construction projects relies on individuals working together in the same physical space to complete the project’s interdependent tasks. The recent spread of Covid-19 is putting these interactions to the test, since social distancing policies actively aim to stop these Interactions from happening in order to contain the virus’ spread.
Understanding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on project programmes has been boosted by new research that uses data analysis to aid quantifying the impact on scheme performance and adopting efficient mitigation measures.
The team from Links & Nodes and University of Cyprus used two Covid-19 scenarios formed combining insights from leading epidemiologists and network scientists to explore the impact of the pandemic on a US$500M construction project.
The research shows that maximum delays could be more than three months compared to that expected in normal business conditions, however, use of social distancing could cut that to 77 days.
Based on 11,000 tasks spread over two and half years to delivery the project, the team used schedule data to capture the planned work for delivery. This was stress tested by combining a delay propagation model and a virus spreading model, currently used by experts to predict the spread of Covid-19. The outcomes of the scenarios – which assumed no social distancing or strict enforcement of social distancing – were then compared the performance of the project under these two scenarios, against a business-as-usual scenario.
“We found that Covid-19 can have a significant impact on the likelihood of the project being delivered on time,” said Links & Nodes chief technology officer Christios Ellinas. “With a confidence of 85%, Covid-19’s impact will make the project overrun by 121%, compared to the case where the project was delivered under business-as-usual. Similarly, we found that with a confidence of 50%, Covid-19’s impact can make the project overrun by 168%. More generally, the project’s exposure to large-scale delays grows by an additional three months, compared to the business-as-usual case.”
According to the research, the impact on projects depends on the strictness of social distancing enforcement.
“We compared the project’s performance under Scenario A – with no social distancing – and B – with strict enforcement – to Scenario 0 where Covid-19 never existed ie, a business-as-usual-scenario. Following standard practice, we have also accounted for duration uncertainty for all tasks and in all scenarios.
“Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, Covid-19 always worsens the delivery of a project, as one would naturally expect. This is due to the overall reduction in progress rate, given that fewer individuals are readily available to complete their assigned tasks at any given point in time.
“In our business-as-usual Scenario 0, the project is already exposed to a maximum delay of about 6 months. Under Scenario A (no policy), this exposure grows further by an additional 3 months (159% overrun), highlighting the extent of its exposure to Covid-19. In the case of Scenario B (strict policy), the impact is slightly lower than Scenario A, where the additional maximum delay grows by just over two months, compared to the Scenario 0 (145% overrun).”
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