Featured Post

INSIGHT: Action needed to ease the burden on South Africa’s water systems

The combination of rapid urbanization, climate change and droughts, high water demand and aging infrastructure has severely strained local water systems. This strain has resulted in water shortages, water-shedding, and the growing threat of water-shedding. According to Olebogeng Manhe, Chairman of the Gap Infrastructure Corporation (GIC) to tackle the growing pressure on water systems, both short-term and long-term measures are required. While short-term steps may not prevent water-shedding completely, they can provide immediate relief and buy time for long-term solutions to be implemented. Improving existing water infrastructure is a crucial part of the long-term solution. Significant investments are needed to upgrade or replace aging infrastructure, especially in rapidly growing towns and cities. However, the public sector alone may not have the resources to meet these financial demands, which is where public-private partnerships (PPPs) come into play. PPPs play a vital role in mana

Is housing construction more resilient to the pandemic?

The Canadian Housing starts rose to 193,500 annualized units in May, from 166,500 in April.

Could this be a sign that home construction is one area of the economy that will escape the COVID-19 pandemic with relatively little disruption?


Canadian home construction is proving more resilient to COVID-19 crisis than other sectors of the economy

Starts in Quebec were not included in April’s tally because the province shut down its construction for much of this month. While starts on a six-month moving average basis were a bit soft, they were nowhere near levels seen during the global financial crisis, said TD Economics’ Rishi Sondhi.

Most provinces did not shut down construction and the strength in activity also reflects demand from before the pandemic, which has been strong, said Sondhi.“Even if we assume activity runs about 15 per cent below pre-COVID trends through the rest of the year, the 2020 housing starts tally would come in around 190k — that’s meaningfully stronger than even the high end of some widely-publicized bearish forecasts out there,” said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.

Housing starts are just the latest economic indicator that has beat expectations over the past month, said RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen. He said the recovery will still likely be gradual, but “the recent near-term data flow has clearly been less discouraging than was expected even a few weeks ago.”

How the economy emerges from the crisis, however, still remains very uncertain and economists warn home construction’s resilience may not last. Sondhi said building permits dropped sharply in April and the prospect of “significantly” slower population growth because of the decline in immigration dims the outlook for homebuilding.

CIBC’s Royce Mendes said despite the more positive number, Canada’s housing market “is facing a number of headwinds from reduced immigration, curtailed short-term rental activity, and newly unveiled measures from CMHC to tighten lending standards.”


Comments